How to price a stock flea market?
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I'm not sure what you mean by price a stock marketplace. If you are talking going on for the DJIA or S&P 500 index, there are three key ways: price weighted, value weighted, and equally weighted. You can websearch for the individual methods for respectively of those.
Remember that an index seeks to seizure a representative sample of a souk. If you are looking at valuing firms inwardly emerging markets, you can use one and the same methodologies that you would use for valuing any other firms. It is adjectives about the amount of change that the assets can generate. The major nouns of difference here is that you have auxiliary tax concerns and, more importantly, country risks. For example, countries that routinely nationalize businesses are risky to do business surrounded by. Another example would be a business that operates within Somalia where in attendance is little government protection of property rights (or other rights for that matter) is much riskier than like business operating in the US. These second risks carry over into the rate at which you discount adjectives cash flows produced by the firm's assets. The difficult the risk, the greater the discount rate, and the lower the value of the firm. Hope this help.
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PE's are just a rule of thumb. Don't bring back fixated on that. If it were that unforced, we would all be rich.
I'm not sure what you parsimonious by "probability method." And how do you "price" a stock market? Do you have it in mind "is it "overpriced"?" Yes, it is overpriced by Dividend Ratios, momentum, historical price, and every and any other measure you can use. But it can also stay overpriced for months or even years at a time.
You don't read out what you are trying to do. Are you looking for indicators to time the market, e.g., when it might be a dutiful time to get out, or within?
Download the historical quotes on the DJIA all the bearing back to the 1929 Crash and nouns them into Excel or some other spreadsheet. Look at the Trend. The Trend is your friend. When the Trend is broken, that's the time to act.
Sounds close to you've really got a ways to turn friend. Are you sure you want to do this yourself? There are hundreds of books on the subject available throught the library for free, but I will recommend two.
One is called "Which Is Better, Buy-and-Hold or Market Timing?" The other is "Do You Have What It Takes to Be a Market Timer?" They will contribute you plenty to think just about.
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The answer to your second question is yes. I ruminate it's generally foolish to compare open market ratios between any two countries. I don't construe your first question. In the US return on equity is popular, as are price-to-book ratio, price-to-sales ratio, PE divided by 5-year profits growth rate, and any ratio where free change is the numerator.
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